Why are there three Projection Starting Points: Annual, Quarter, and Trend?
The three Projection Starting Points—Annual, Quarter, and Trend—exist so you can choose the most meaningful base value for projecting future Sales and Earnings per Share (EPS) in the Stock Selection Guide (CoreSSG and SSGPlus). Companies hit bumps (pandemics, tax-law changes, acquisitions, turnarounds) that can make the “latest number” misleading. These options let you anchor your forecast to the figure that best represents ongoing earning power.What each option means (and when to use it)
Quarter (TTM) — default & most current
• What it is: Trailing twelve months (TTM) that includes the most recent quarter.
• When to use: Most studies. It pulls in the freshest operating results—useful when recent quarters show recovery/acceleration not yet reflected in the prior fiscal year.
• Why it helps: Keeps projections aligned with up-to-date business conditions (e.g., a rebound underway).
Annual — last completed fiscal year
• What it is: The most recent full fiscal year’s Sales/EPS.
• When to use: When a very recent quarter (or TTM) looks temporarily weak/odd and you believe results will normalize by year-end, or when analyst estimates you trust are framed on a fiscal-year basis.
• Note: The Annual start point is the last fiscal year even if you mark that year as an outlier in your study.
Trend — growth trend-line endpoint
• What it is: The value at the end of the historical growth trend line, which smooths one-offs and excludes outliers.
• When to use: When the latest Annual/Quarter figures are distorted (e.g., pandemic shock, unusual tax expense) or the company is cyclical and you want a normalized base.
• Why it helps: Anchors your forecast to the company’s underlying, “through-the-cycle” trajectory.
________________________________________
Why offer these choices?
• Real life is messy. Short-term anomalies can make the “latest” number too high or too low.
• SSG is judgment-driven. You’re encouraged to make reasonable, supportable projections; the starting-point choice lets you correct for noise and reflect the company’s true earning power.
________________________________________
Where to change it
• CoreSSG: Forecast Sales & Earnings step (right side of the page).
• SSGPlus: Analyze Growth & Quality tab (upper-right control).
• Defaults for new studies: Set in Tools → Preferences (applies to new studies only; saved studies retain their saved setting).
________________________________________
Quick rule of thumb
• Choose Quarter when recency matters and the TTM captures a genuine shift.
• Choose Annual when recent quarters look noisy but you believe full-year results are still representative.
• Choose Trend when unusual events (up or down) have skewed recent data and a normalized starting point better reflects the business.
Tip: Always note your rationale in the study. Clear reasoning today makes for faster, higher-quality updates tomorrow.